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March 2021 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. March is normally a decent performing market month however post-election year payments to the Piper can take a toll on March as average historical gains are trimmed noticeably. In post-election years March ranks: #8 DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 2000; NASDAQ is 4th worst with an average loss of 0.2%.

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Almanac Update February 2021: Historically Weak in Post-Election Years

Even though February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than sixth and has posted meager average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carryover; tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.0% in February since 1979—just the sixth best month for that ...

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February 2021 Outlook: Robinhood Thwarts January Indicator Trifecta, Watch Out For February Weakness

It’s been a dynamic six weeks since we made our Annual Forecast for 2021 and volatility spiked the last week of January as the merry Gen Z traders made on run on the shorts of the old guard on Wall Street. Robinhood Markets and other trading apps and services and online communities used by younger up-and-coming retail traders were able to organize en masse and create an old-fashioned short squeeze. You’ve got to hand it to ...

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January 2021 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. January is the third month of the Best Six/Eight, but it is the last of the Best-Three-Consecutive-month span. January is the top month for NASDAQ (since 1971) averaging 2.8%, but it has slipped to sixth for DJIA and fifth for S&P 500 since 1950. Post-election-year Januarys have been weaker (DJIA +0.6%, S&P 500 +0.8% NASDAQ +2.3%), but still positive. ...

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January 2021 Outlook: Yearend Rally Continues, Seasonal Patterns Endure and 2021 Looks Like A Good Year

Global pandemic was certainly not in our forecast last year and neither was the economic shutdown that came with it. Covid-19 has dramatically changed the world, the economy and the market forever. Some industries are still struggling, while others have adapted and changed. The “stay-at-home” economy stocks, technology in general and biotech industries are having a major impact that has been keeping the economy humming along and the market rallying to new highs.

Our outlook is bullish for next year. Covid ...

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Almanac Update January 2021: An Indicator Trifecta Historically Bullish

January has quite a reputation on Wall Street as an influx of cash from yearend bonuses and annual allocations has historically propelled stocks higher. January ranks #1 for NASDAQ (since 1971), but fifth on the S&P 500 and sixth for DJIA since 1950. January is the last month of the best three-month span and holds a full docket of indicators and seasonalities.

DJIA and S&P rankings did slip from 2000 to 2016 as both indices suffered losses in ten of those ...

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December 2020 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. December is now the number three S&P 500 and DJIA month since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971). The “January Effect” of small-cap outperformance starts in mid-December. Santa’s Rally begins on Thursday December 24 and lasts until the second trading day of the New ...

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December 2020 Outlook: Yearend Rally Powers Ahead

Stocks have been on the rise since the late-October lows in prototypical market seasonality fashion, though NASDAQ has lagged a bit. Honestly, NASDAQ tech stocks deserve a break, they have carried the market for months now as they have driven and supported the stay-at-home economy. This rotation into the reopening-economy big cap stocks and the new highs in the Russell 2000 small caps, which are more domestic-based firms, is encouraging.

The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks is on a ...

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