Almanac Update June 2021: Second Worst DJIA Month in Post-Election Years

June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 50 years as a rule ranking sixth with a 0.9% average gain, up 28 of 50 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well in ...

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3
JUN
2021

0

Almanac Update

Best Eight Months, Best Six Months, DJIA, First Day, last trading day, NASDAQ, options expiration, post-election year, Q2, S&P 500, Vital Stats, Worst Four Months, Worst Months, Worst Six Months

Almanac Update May 2021: Stronger in Post-Election Years

May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the DJIA compounded to a gain of $960,943 for November-April in 70 years compared to just $1,656 for May-October. The same hypothetical $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 compounded to $788,997 for November-April ...

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5
MAY
2021

0

Almanac Update

Best Eight Months, Best Six Months, DJIA, First Day, Mother's Day, NASDAQ, options expiration, post-election year, S&P 500, Vital Stats

May 2021 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Neutral. May is the first month of DJIA and S&P 500 “Worst Six Months.” However, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 strength historically lasts through June. In post-election years, May has been a solid month. DJIA and S&P 500 have both advanced in May for nine straight post-election years.

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5
MAY
2021

0

Market At A Glance

DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, jobless claims, monetary, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

May 2021 Outlook: Muted Market Action Anticipated Over Worst Six Months

Seasonality remains back to normal and it appears from all our observations that it will continue to track historical patterns for the remainder of the year. April’s solid returns across the board led by S&P 500 (up 5.2%) and NASDAQ (up 5.4%) and new highs for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ capped off a banner Best Six Months. DJIA is up 27.8%, S&P 500 is up 27.9%, NASDAQ is up 28.0% and the Russell 2000 is up an amazing 47.3% ...

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5
MAY
2021

0

Monthly Outlook

Best Months, COVID-19, DJIA, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, NDX, pandemic, post-election year seasonal, pullback, Q1, S&P 500, Sell in May, sentiment, technical, Worst Months, Worst Six Months

S&P 500 Up Over 10% First Four Months – Preceded Flat May to late-October

As of yesterday’s close, S&P 500 was up 11.5% year-to-date. Provided these gains hold through the end of April, this year will be just the seventeenth time since 1950 that the S&P 500 has finished the first four months of the year with a gain exceeding 10%. The best January to April span occurred in 1975, up 27.3% (S&P 500 was in the early stages of a new bull market following the bear ending 10/3/1974 in which the S&P 500 ...

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28
APR
2021

0

Seasonal Research

April, post-election year, S&P 500, YTD Big Gains

Almanac Update April 2021: Top DJIA Month – Up 15 in a Row

April marks the end of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 1st. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on November 5, 2020 through the close on March 25, 2021, DJIA was up 14.9% and S&P 500 had advanced 11.4%. These above average gains are encouraging and suggest seasonality is back on track after getting derailed by Covid-19 last year.

April 1999 was the first month to ...

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31
MAR
2021

0

Almanac Update

Best Eight Months, Best Six Months, DJIA, Easter, First Day, NASDAQ, options expiration, post-election year, S&P 500, Vital Stats

April 2021 Outlook: Late-March Weakness Sets Up End of Best Six Months Rally

The last month of our “Best Six Months” is now upon us. So it’s the perfect time to provide a refresher for longtime readers and primer for those that have recently joined us. We do not simply “Sell in May and go away.” We employ a more nuanced and subtle approach to how we implement our Best & Worst Months Switching Strategies detailed in the annual Stock Trader’s Almanac and on www.stocktradersalmanac.com. We are Continue Reading →

31
MAR
2021

0

Monthly Outlook

10-Year Yield, Best Months, COVID-19, DJIA, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, NDX, pandemic, post-election year seasonal, pullback, Q1, S&P 500, Sell in May, sentiment, technical, Worst Months, Worst Six Months

April 2021 Market at a Glance

Seasonal:

Bullish. April is the last month of DJIA and S&P 500 “Best Six Months.” It is DJIA’s best month since 1950, second best S&P 500 and fourth for NASDAQ. DJIA has been up 15 Aprils in a row. Remain vigilant as our Seasonal MACD Sell for DJIA and S&P 500 can occur anytime on or after April 1.

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31
MAR
2021

0

Market At A Glance

DJIA, Fed, fundamental, GDP, jobless claims, monetary, NASDAQ, rates, S&P 500, Seasonal, sentiment, technical

Almanac Update March 2021: Softer in Post-Election Years

Tempestuous March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. In March 2020, DJIA plunged nearly 4012 points (-17.3%) during the week ending on the 20th.

March packs a rather busy docket. It ...

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4
MAR
2021

0

Almanac Update

Best Eight Months, Best Six Months, DJIA, NASDAQ, options expiration, post-election year, S&P 500, Saint Patrick’s Day, Vital Stats

March 2021 Outlook: Frothy Market Succumbs & Looks for Support In March

Unfortunately the February weakness we warned about last issue began to materialize mid-month and accelerated into month-end. The “excuse du jour” is rising bond yields as the 10-Year Treasury climbed above 1.5%. The reaction to the 10-Year yield moving above 1.5% could be a little overblown. It’s barely back to pre-Covid levels. Perhaps it’s more a sign of a healthy economy and rising inflation expectations, which is precisely what the Fed has been trying to foster. We’re not overly concerned ...

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4
MAR
2021

0

Monthly Outlook

10-Year Yield, Best Months, COVID-19, DJIA, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, NDX, pandemic, post-election year seasonal, pullback, Q1, S&P 500, sentiment, technical, Worst Months

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5
MAY
2021

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31
MAR
2021

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