Seasonal Strategies

August’s First Trading Day Not So Great

From the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2018 (page 86), it is known that the first trading days of each month combined gain nearly as much as all other days combined. However, the first trading day of August does not contribute to this phenomenon ranking worst among other First Trading Days in the 2018 Almanac and even after a modestly positive performance last year it is still the last in the upcoming 2019 edition of the Almanac. In the past 21 years DJIA has risen just 33.3% (up 7, down 14) of the time on the first trading day of August. Several sizable gains in those up years, have mitigated the average first day percent change, but the median performance is a more sizable loss. Over the past seven years, DJIA and S&P 500 have both declined five times.

First Trading Day of August Performance Table